October 2026 Market Commentary
Monthly Coffee Recap Summary
New York arabica finished October near where it began after a speculative rally toward $3.18/lb was unwound by heavier Brazilian selling and a weaker real. Brazilian shipments remain strong, although it will take time for those volumes to show up in stocks at destination. Low certified stocks and an inverted New York curve still leave the December–March spread sensitive to how much coffee can actually pass grading and be delivered against December.
Looking further out, El Niño remains a key watch, while we estimate a global surplus of about 10 million bags in 2026/27, driven by Brazilian arabica. Crop tours from late December into January should give us a better sense of Brazil’s 2027/28 off-year crop.
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