Summary
Cotton is reaching the point where the bulls need to be vindicated again. The September WASDE tightened the U.S. balance sheet, but with production now at 13.2m bales and the market still well below the 94 c/lb highs, there is currently little on the supply side strong enough to force prices materially higher.
That shifts the focus to the other side of the balance sheet - demand. The clearest potential catalyst is China, with optimism around possible U.S. agricultural purchases ahead of the Trump-Xi talks already helping cotton rebound from around 81 c/lb to 83.4 c/lb. If Chinese buying does return in size, it could provide the demand story the bulls have been waiting for. The bigger question is whether the market is getting ahead of itself yet again and beginning to price in those purchases before they have actually materialised.
In partnership with
You Use AI Every Day. Why don't you own any of it?
You probably opened something powered by AI before your first coffee this morning. Millions of people do. Almost none of them own a piece of it.
That's been the catch with the AI boom — the biggest gains went to insiders and venture funds, while the companies actually building the frontier stayed private and out of reach.
That's starting to change. A wave of AI IPOs is forming, and a few are shaping up to be among the most retail-accessible mega-listings in years — the rare chance to get in near the ground floor instead of reading about the gains after the fact.
Our free briefing lays out the timeline, the access window, and the filing risk most investors will miss. No credit card. Sent straight to your inbox.
Subscribe to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber of our Premium or Basic Package to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
UpgradeA subscription can get you:
- Full Weekly Comment with all charts
- Full Monthly Coffee Report
- Weekly Technical Analysis
- Full Monthly Additional Commodity Report
- Cross-commodity Outlook
- Complete Datasets and Proprietary Market Indicators
