Overview
If you haven’t already, subscribe to GSX Weekly Research to receive our latest market commentary, technical analysis, and commodity insights directly to your inbox.
If you want to understand the charts further, you can read about how to interpret them here.
KC Arabica Coffee
Strategic
Another week of chop in the big-picture view for KC does not clear up the picture in this region. However, as previously discussed, this chop slightly reduces the probability of the bearish base case. If we are in a wave iii down, we should be heading lower in impulsive fashion; instead, we are seeing the 300-350 ‘chopsolidation’, which favours the orange bullish case.
Tactical
On the shorter timeframes, we still cannot see any micro five-wave move up off the 24 July low, which implies nothing immediately bullish is unfolding quite yet. Despite the spike this week, we continue looking down in the short term, until KC strikes near 280. Rest assured we will one day leave this zone behind - probably violently, given this much consolidation.
CT Cotton
Strategic
CT continues playing ball in the base case to print higher, above the May 2026 high. Still marching ever-upwards on the weekly chart, just contained by the Fibonacci extension pivot box at 81.5–83. Once the market clears that, we’d expect to see a new 2026 high in relatively short order.
Tactical
Last week, we were looking for higher in the short term on cotton futures, and the market delivered. However, it was not an impulsive move up as in five Elliott waves. Therefore, this week there is some risk of a small trip back to the mid-July lows around 78. Whether we see that or not, we should really be breaking higher in the wave iii soon, targeting 92.
