Technical Analysis

We are pleased to introduce a dedicated Technical Analysis section to the GSX Weekly Research offering. Designed to complement our fundamental market commentary, this new addition provides deeper insight into market trends, key price levels, and potential trading scenarios, helping clients develop a more complete view of commodity market dynamics.

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We’re expecting lower over the long term in Arabica, targeting a minimum of 215. The bounce currently in progress is counted as wave (iv) up, progressing toward its target region of 295–300 discussed in last edition’s Tactical. Given its clearly corrective price structure, we have removed the orange alternate count from the chart, that considered wave (v) had already completed. The base case continues to play out, and we await evidence from the market of a downturn into wave (v).

The breakout from the downtrend channel discussed last week survived a retest in wave b. Prices are now tracing out wave c of (iv). We expect some upside continuation through the week toward 295–300, which will present an attractive short-entry opportunity for trading the coming wave (v) down to 215.

Cotton presents a long-term bullish chart at this juncture, with the base case being wave 1 and wave 2 now in place as the opening of a larger five-wave move higher. Should this base case play out, we would see much higher cotton prices, above the 2026 high of 89. CT is currently working on the sub-waves that would fuel such a breakout.

Cotton moved to convince us wave i completed at 80.40, producing a decline to the 50% retracement over the week. This is enough to complete wave ii; however, we prudently remain vigilant of a lower low toward 74.40 at the 0.618 retracement. Once wave ii is confirmed complete, we expect wave iii to take out the high, as a vanguard of the bigger wave 3. Once we see a break above the 2026 high, we can disclose wave 3 targets, but not until we see evidence the base case is accurate.